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Development
scenarios and conclusions |
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Plans regarding the development of
the Yamal gas fields have been undergoing near constant revision
during recent decades. There still remains indecision about the
route of the potential pipeline(s) (Deutsch Morgan Grenfell 1998),
or even whether there should be any major pipeline(s) built at all.
An alternative scenario under serious consideration is to ship the
gas out by tanker via the Northern Sea Route (Golovnev et al. 1998).
Regardless of the eventual outcome, a great deal of damage has already
been sustained by the ecosystems of Yamal since the advent of extensive
exploration and development (Forbes 1995, 1997; Khitun 1997; Vilchek
1997), including health and demographic problems among the indigenous
population (Pika and Bogoyavlensky 1995). Among wildlife populations
that have thrived for centuries in conjunction with reindeer herding,
certain favoured species appear to be in decline and may soon become
locally extinct due to an increase in hunting and poaching (Dobrinskii
and Sosin 1995). |
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According to Gazprom's plans, the
Yamal Project is to be developed in stages. The "last and most
expensive" (i.e., damaging) stage, which they estimate at $18
billion, is not scheduled to begin until around 2005, and the actual
reserves are not "needed" until beyond 2010, possibly
later (Deutsch Morgan Grenfell 1998). Given the structure and power
of the Russian state, its majority stake in Gazprom, and its increasingly
desperate need for hard currency to pay its debts, it is almost
a foregone conclusion that the final stage of the Yamal project
will indeed go ahead sooner or later. However, the expected delay
potentially affords some time for further baseline ecological and
socio-economic studies to determine the most sensitive way to proceed.
Although the American Oil Company (Amoco) was sponsoring archaeological,
revegetation and reindeer pasture monitoring studies for several
years, it withdrew from Yamal Peninsula in 1996. Amoco has since
been merged with British Petroleum (BP) and other Western companies
are planning to step in to fill the void, including Finland's Neste
Oy. Gazprom, which has begun selling shares on the international
stock market (Deutsch Morgan Grenfell 1998), has a poor record of
environmental and cultural protection on Yamal (Forbes 1995, 1997;
Khitun 1997; Vilchek 1997; Golovnev and Osherenko 1999). Therefore,
long-term Western involvement is likely to be beneficial, so that
international standards and protocols for mitigation are instituted
and adhered to. If not, pressure can be brought to bear where it
counts most, in the international media and the marketplace, should
Gazprom continue, and its new cohorts begin, to ignore their responsibility
to the Nenets and to the environment. |
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